Dear friends,
I am touched and happy that there are readers who missed me during my absence for the past week and have been urging me to share more. For the past week, I have busy researching on more profitable patterns in the market and will soon reveal to all :)
Ok, here's my take on the Dow Jones tonight. After a memorial day break, I am looking it to open at least 30pts down, around the region of 11,240. There's a 75% chance that it would continue to sell off from there and end much lower. Seeya 5 hours later at the Dow Jones opening .... Cheers
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After Market Analysis
Seems like I am wrong about the opening price of Dow Jones. It opened @ 11,277.25 instead of the predicted 11,240 :) However, do you check out the sell-off that came after the opening? It's fast and furious, with Dow Jones down 184.18pts at the end of the session....
To me, it's all part of the game and can be anticipated. Question is, do you want to make use of this information to make $$ and improve the quality of your life and that of your family? If the answer is YES, do stay tuned for my posts :)
Tuesday, May 30, 2006
Thursday, May 18, 2006
17th May 06 - What makes a Great Trader ???
Let's me share with you a story....
John, an aspiring trader learnt a wonderful trading theory. The theory itself is wonderful, scoring a remarkable 87% over 20yrs of back-testing. For 2 weeks, John did some intensive mock trading and make sure he knows the theory at the tip of his fingers. The mock trading turned out well for John and he made his virtual account grew 10% in a week. Marvelous, isn't it?
The day came when John decided to trade with real $$. First trade came, though very nervous, he followed the system and made $100. Second trade came, he repeated the feat and made $200. He began to feel that all his efforts are paying dividends and imagine that possibly in 5 yrs time, he can retire financially free through trading.
Well, as you know it, that's only PART 1 of the story ... pls read on ...
Third trade came and John got stopped out for the trade, losing $300. To John, he thinks that it's okay as he understands that there's no holy grail in trading. So, naturally, there will be losing trades. John was still feeling fine although he has lost his gains from the 1st two trades, at least his capital was still untouched.
The fourth and fifth trades turned out to be losing trades too, wiping $1,000 off his account. John was devastated as he can't believe that a supposedly 87% system can generate 3 losing trades from 5 trades. He started to doubt whether the system still can help him to achieve financial freedom or will he crash his whole account before even coming close to the dream. He really don't know what to do and decided to take a break off trading.
During his break, the system generated a string of 8 successive trades. Should he have traded all of them, he could have made back everything he lost and even bagged a profit of $1,500. He decided to give the system one last chance.
On the D-day, the trade came. John followed the entry signal and went in. Things looked well and the market was going to his profit level. It was just a few ticks to his profit when the market suddenly reversed. Within seconds, all his paper profits were gone and the market was sprinting towards his stop loss level. Suddenly, in John's mind, images of the last 2 losing trades flashed by... John decided that he cannot take another steep loss if the market was to trigger his stops. Using his own discretion, he decided to end the misery and cut the loss early. After he got out of his trade, the market reversed again and went ahead to hit the profit level. Looking at the screen, John was totally destroyed mentally. After this trade, John went ahead with a spat of revenge trading and soon his trading account was wiped out.
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Dear friends, how many of you have experienced what John has gone through however different or similar your story might be?
I too have gone through what John has experienced, in fact more than 1 time.
What really makes a Great Trader??
What happens when you suffered a big loss? Do you cry over spilt milk or do you seek to repair the trade? A great trader sees trading as a business and seeks to finish each day as a positive day. Shall he suffer a big loss, he becomes more sharp and hunts for opportunities to make back bit by bit. He don't believe in making back in "1 big trade". As you can see, there's a fine line between revenge trading and repairing/damage control.
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John, an aspiring trader learnt a wonderful trading theory. The theory itself is wonderful, scoring a remarkable 87% over 20yrs of back-testing. For 2 weeks, John did some intensive mock trading and make sure he knows the theory at the tip of his fingers. The mock trading turned out well for John and he made his virtual account grew 10% in a week. Marvelous, isn't it?
The day came when John decided to trade with real $$. First trade came, though very nervous, he followed the system and made $100. Second trade came, he repeated the feat and made $200. He began to feel that all his efforts are paying dividends and imagine that possibly in 5 yrs time, he can retire financially free through trading.
Well, as you know it, that's only PART 1 of the story ... pls read on ...
Third trade came and John got stopped out for the trade, losing $300. To John, he thinks that it's okay as he understands that there's no holy grail in trading. So, naturally, there will be losing trades. John was still feeling fine although he has lost his gains from the 1st two trades, at least his capital was still untouched.
The fourth and fifth trades turned out to be losing trades too, wiping $1,000 off his account. John was devastated as he can't believe that a supposedly 87% system can generate 3 losing trades from 5 trades. He started to doubt whether the system still can help him to achieve financial freedom or will he crash his whole account before even coming close to the dream. He really don't know what to do and decided to take a break off trading.
During his break, the system generated a string of 8 successive trades. Should he have traded all of them, he could have made back everything he lost and even bagged a profit of $1,500. He decided to give the system one last chance.
On the D-day, the trade came. John followed the entry signal and went in. Things looked well and the market was going to his profit level. It was just a few ticks to his profit when the market suddenly reversed. Within seconds, all his paper profits were gone and the market was sprinting towards his stop loss level. Suddenly, in John's mind, images of the last 2 losing trades flashed by... John decided that he cannot take another steep loss if the market was to trigger his stops. Using his own discretion, he decided to end the misery and cut the loss early. After he got out of his trade, the market reversed again and went ahead to hit the profit level. Looking at the screen, John was totally destroyed mentally. After this trade, John went ahead with a spat of revenge trading and soon his trading account was wiped out.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dear friends, how many of you have experienced what John has gone through however different or similar your story might be?
I too have gone through what John has experienced, in fact more than 1 time.
What really makes a Great Trader??
What happens when you suffered a big loss? Do you cry over spilt milk or do you seek to repair the trade? A great trader sees trading as a business and seeks to finish each day as a positive day. Shall he suffer a big loss, he becomes more sharp and hunts for opportunities to make back bit by bit. He don't believe in making back in "1 big trade". As you can see, there's a fine line between revenge trading and repairing/damage control.
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16th May 06 - Let's talk about Taiwan Futures
Today is an meaningful day, full of learning experiences. Earlier in the morning, KOSPI and Nikkei continued to weaken, especially with KOSPI pretty much one-way traffic to the south pole. I sold Taiwan @ 2981 it is likely to be dragged down by it's neighbouring markets, namely KOSPI and Nikkei.
Through my months of observing Taiwan, it's often the market that seemed to be "out of sync" with the other regional markets, meaning the other markets might be selling hard but Taiwan can stand still or even go up. As such, it is often considered one of the weirdest and thus challenging market to trade in. You need to be patient and have firm belief in your position as it takes alot more time for the intraday trend to develop. Once the trend forms and in your favour, hold on to the position and often it's possible to ride the position till MOC (market on close) for maximum profit. For today, I held on the short for 40 ticks before covering @ 2941, a profit of 400 usd. Took more than 3hrs but my patience grew through this trade :)
In the midst of my Taiwan short position, I initiated a long position in Hang Seng @ 16,320. Right in your mind, I know you must be thinking: Isn't it kinda weird to be long in 1 mkt and short in another AT THE SAME TIME ???
Yes, it might be strange but I have my reasons....
Firstly, Hang Seng sold off for more than 500pts on the previous session. I bought as I expect some recovery from that sell-off. Bought @ 16,320 and looking to clear for 50pts profit with a risk of 30pts.
Secondly, as what I said earlier, weirdo Taiwan is often moving in different direction as the other markets. So I can be on opposite sides for these 2 different markets.
Lastly, the expected time frame for the 2 trades are different. As such, I am expecting the Hang Seng long to be done within 30min while Taiwan is to be held till market close which is 4hrs away.
A pity, my Hang Seng long got stopped out @ a loss of 30pts. However at the end of the day, I am still positive due to the bigger profit in Taiwan. I shorted Hang Seng later in the afternoon @ 16,180 to keep overnight as I expect the US market to sell off later in the evening.
Through my months of observing Taiwan, it's often the market that seemed to be "out of sync" with the other regional markets, meaning the other markets might be selling hard but Taiwan can stand still or even go up. As such, it is often considered one of the weirdest and thus challenging market to trade in. You need to be patient and have firm belief in your position as it takes alot more time for the intraday trend to develop. Once the trend forms and in your favour, hold on to the position and often it's possible to ride the position till MOC (market on close) for maximum profit. For today, I held on the short for 40 ticks before covering @ 2941, a profit of 400 usd. Took more than 3hrs but my patience grew through this trade :)
In the midst of my Taiwan short position, I initiated a long position in Hang Seng @ 16,320. Right in your mind, I know you must be thinking: Isn't it kinda weird to be long in 1 mkt and short in another AT THE SAME TIME ???
Yes, it might be strange but I have my reasons....
Firstly, Hang Seng sold off for more than 500pts on the previous session. I bought as I expect some recovery from that sell-off. Bought @ 16,320 and looking to clear for 50pts profit with a risk of 30pts.
Secondly, as what I said earlier, weirdo Taiwan is often moving in different direction as the other markets. So I can be on opposite sides for these 2 different markets.
Lastly, the expected time frame for the 2 trades are different. As such, I am expecting the Hang Seng long to be done within 30min while Taiwan is to be held till market close which is 4hrs away.
A pity, my Hang Seng long got stopped out @ a loss of 30pts. However at the end of the day, I am still positive due to the bigger profit in Taiwan. I shorted Hang Seng later in the afternoon @ 16,180 to keep overnight as I expect the US market to sell off later in the evening.
Monday, May 15, 2006
15th May 06 - The Great Sell Off in Asia
Today is a Monday to remember for long time to come. Never have I seen SIMSCI shed 11pts and Hang Seng tanking more than 500pts in a day. Well, it came as a surprise though as I anticipated a recovery.
In total, there are 3 trades for today. I went SHORT on Taiwan @ 299.9 early in the morning due to general weakness in the Asian regionals. The original plan was to position this trade till the end of the session, targetting a 3-4pts profit. Only managed to see 299.0 low as bids swarmed in to support the market. I got out @ 299.8, slightly above breakeven as regionals gradually recovered and I don't want to bang too much on HOPE mode. Whenever I am in HOPE mode, I get out of a trade. Anyway, there's always a good trade lying around :)
Next up, seeing the recovery, I went LONG on Hang Seng @ 16,528, supported by recovery in Nikkei & KOSPI. The market showed much reluctance to go up and every down move is fast and furious. At that instance, you can really 'feel' the lack of willingness to buy up ...If it's supposed to go up, then why is it not even showing that on the charts? The charts don't lie .... The sell-off will come in a matter of time, thus I got out @ 16,530, making sure I don't lose. And you know what, after getting out, the market only managed to inch up to 16,538 before closing for lunch. After lunch, you saw it for yourself, the great sell off came. Can this move be predicted? You bet ....
Finally, the last trade that made a decent sum. Shorted Nikkei @ 16,415. Machinery reports came out and disappoint the traders. Wham, Nikkei lost 70pts of ground in that minute. Covered my contract @ 16,360. Fast and dirty ....
A pity I got nothing from the afternoon sell-off as I was in a meeting. Well, the market has no short of profitable opportunities. To summarise, 3 trades, 2 breakevens and 1 winner, a reasonable 240USD paycheck from the market :)
In total, there are 3 trades for today. I went SHORT on Taiwan @ 299.9 early in the morning due to general weakness in the Asian regionals. The original plan was to position this trade till the end of the session, targetting a 3-4pts profit. Only managed to see 299.0 low as bids swarmed in to support the market. I got out @ 299.8, slightly above breakeven as regionals gradually recovered and I don't want to bang too much on HOPE mode. Whenever I am in HOPE mode, I get out of a trade. Anyway, there's always a good trade lying around :)
Next up, seeing the recovery, I went LONG on Hang Seng @ 16,528, supported by recovery in Nikkei & KOSPI. The market showed much reluctance to go up and every down move is fast and furious. At that instance, you can really 'feel' the lack of willingness to buy up ...If it's supposed to go up, then why is it not even showing that on the charts? The charts don't lie .... The sell-off will come in a matter of time, thus I got out @ 16,530, making sure I don't lose. And you know what, after getting out, the market only managed to inch up to 16,538 before closing for lunch. After lunch, you saw it for yourself, the great sell off came. Can this move be predicted? You bet .... 
Finally, the last trade that made a decent sum. Shorted Nikkei @ 16,415. Machinery reports came out and disappoint the traders. Wham, Nikkei lost 70pts of ground in that minute. Covered my contract @ 16,360. Fast and dirty ....A pity I got nothing from the afternoon sell-off as I was in a meeting. Well, the market has no short of profitable opportunities. To summarise, 3 trades, 2 breakevens and 1 winner, a reasonable 240USD paycheck from the market :)
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